New Hampshire Primary Poll 1 (enter by mid Aug)

New Hampshire Presidential Primary Poll Contest (created July 18, 2019). This contest will close sometime in August right after the second debate on July 31.

CNN in conjunction with the University of New Hampshire has polling results on candidates seeking the Democratic presidential primary for the 2020 election, starting in February of 2019.  Presumably, this poll will be ongoing, with monthly or bimonthly updates.  This creates an opportunity for us to predict how the New Hamphire likely voters will respond to the candidates as they get to know them better.

The most recent poll was conducted between July 8 and 15. If you are interested in all the questions, the demographics of the respondents, and the science of the survey, please click here for the CNN - UNH PDF.  Very interesting reading and an insight into the science of polling. Presumably the poll will be conducted again this summer, perhaps just after the second Democratic Debate, which is at the end of July. 

One of their questions is: "If the primary were conducted today, which of the following candidates would you support for the Democratic nomination?" Here are the most recent Results:

Joe Biden: 24%, Elizabeth Warren: 19%, Bernie Sanders: 19%, Pete Buttigieg: 10%, Kamala Harris: 9%, Cory Booker: 2%, Beto O'Rourke: 2%

Another question is "What Democratic candidate do you think has the best chance of winning in the general election in Novemeber, 2020? Results:

Joe Biden: 45%, Bernie Sanders: 16%, Elizabeth Warren: 9%, Kamala Harris: 7%, Beto O'Rourke: 2%, Pete Buttigieg: 1%, Tulsi Gabbard: 1%, Cory Booker: 1%

This contest closes at the end of the day on July 31.  Winners anounced after the next CNN Poll, presumably in the middle of August. Winners for question 6 (dropping out) will be announced after August 31.

THERE ARE SIX QUESTIONS. Your answers say nothing about your own politics, just your ability to read the minds of 800 or so New Hampshire likely voters during a week in August.  I hope you have some fun with this.

 


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1)   In the next NH Primary poll (presumably in August), what percent of New Hampshire voters will answer JOE BIDEN as the candidate they would support for the Democratic nomination if the primary were held today?

  24% (no change from July)
  25% or higher
  23% or lower

JULY RESULTS:
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O'Rourke: 2%
 
2)   In the next NH Primary poll (presumably in August), what percent of New Hampshire voters will answer ELIZABETH WARREN as the candidate they would support for the Democratic nomination if the primary were held today?

  19% (no change from July)
  20% or higher
  18% or lower

JULY RESULTS:
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O'Rourke: 2%
 
3)   In the next NH Primary poll (presumably in August), what percent of New Hampshire voters will answer BERNIE SANDERS as the candidate they would support for the Democratic nomination if the primary were held today?

  19% (no change from July)
  20% or higher
  18% or lower

JULY RESULTS:
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O'Rourke: 2%
 
4)   In the next NH Primary poll (presumably in August), what percent of New Hampshire voters will answer PETE BUTTIGIEG as the candidate they would support for the Democratic nomination if the primary were held today?

  10% (no change from July)
  11% or higher
  9% or lower

JULY RESULTS:
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O'Rourke: 2%
 
5)   In the next NH Primary poll (presumably in August), what percent of New Hampshire voters will answer KAMALA HARRIS as the candidate they would support for the Democratic nomination if the primary were held today?

  9% (no change from July)
  10% or higher
  8% or lower

JULY RESULTS:
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O'Rourke: 2%
 
6)   Who do you think will drop out of the race between the second presidential debates (held July 30 and 31 on CNN) and the end of August? Name as many candidates as you like. "No one" is also an option.


As of July 9, according to the New York Times, there were 24 declared Democratic candidates: Bennet, Biden, Booker, Bullock, Buttigieg, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Gellibrand, Harris, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, O'Rourke, Ryan, Sanders, Sestak, Steyer, Warren, Williamson, and Yang. Chose from this list.

(Ojeda and Swalwell had dropped out.)
 


agape