The Future is Here!

While we've all had a great life, do you ever wonder what life will be like for our children and grandchildren?  We think of ourselves as "The Luckiest Generation," for all sorts of good reasons.  But what new things will make life for our kids even better for them than life has been for us?  Is there even a "better?"  Or, is it just different?

I.

This item was just sent in (Sept. 23, 2017) by Classmate Arthur Freeman.  It's a little bit repetitious of other material on this page, near the bottom; but it's a good "read" anyway.  Thanks Art!

IMPORTANT READ FOR OUR FUTURE (Are you glad you live now?)

This thought-provoking interview by the Managing Director of Daimler Benz isn't news to anyone who follows the stream of articles by credible futurists, but it's a reminder of the rapidity with which the 'New Normal' races toward us. 

The Managing Director of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are.  The 3 constants of  Death, Taxes and Change haven't changed.

His salient points: 

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

It will provide analyses of 54 biomarkers that identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. The  medical establishment faces dramatic changes.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

 

And tomorrow's surprises will exceed today's predictions.

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II.

Here are some ideas "just in" that show some of the new gadgets that may make the lives of our children at least as interesting as life has been for us.

The future is here -- these advancements are staggering.

 
1. The world's first virtual shopping center opened in Korea.
All the products are just LCD screens that allow you to order the items by touching the screen.
When you get to the counter, your items are already bagged and ready to go.
 

   2. A cellphone you can bend as much as you like and it will still do everything a smart phone does.
 
 
 
3. Your personal computer ring can play music, check your email, give you alerts and even allows you to browse or chat with others.

 
 
4. A person may have the ability to see with his prosthetic eye, which has a camera installed in it.
 

 
5. No longer using the camping stove just for cooking, a new line of camping stoves use the heat energy to power up lights and charge your phones or anything else you can charge by USB cable.
 

  
6. A trash can which follows you around and calculates where to stand to catch your thrown garbage!
 

 
7. A motion tracking table which morphs its surface to mimic your movements, allowing you to control objects from the other side of the planet if you so choose.
 
 
8. A windowed door which turns opaque whenever you lock it.
 

 
9. The new 'Google Fiber' has started deploying, and will offer users an internet connection that is about 100 times faster than what they are currently using.
 
 
 
10. A stop sign using water to project the image.
 

 
 
11. An example of the new E-Ink in action. An ink that stays flat on the page and can be printed but still moves on the printer page.
 

 
12. Dozens of items that we used to require separately 20 years ago... Are now done by a single smartphone.
 
13. New casts for broken bones can be printed with a 3D printer, are lighter, more comfortable and just as strong.
 
14. Bionic hands are now so advanced they can perform even delicate and complex movements.
 
 
Welcome to the world of Tomorrow.............
 
Well actually, it's already Here!
 
And in case you wonder what other "wonders" our kids and grandkids may encounter, here are ideas that are being worked on right now...

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.

Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became far superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs.   Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic   stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, and only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps doctors in diagnosing cancer; 4 times more accurate than human doctors. Facebook now has pattern-recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans can. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the   complete auto industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it; you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for living in our cities. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1 to 2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km; with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach   and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google, etc.) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. A lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change, because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than was fossil-energy using facilities. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.   Desalination plants now only need 2 kWh of energy to produce 1 cubic meter of potable water. We don't have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, and which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you simply breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.   It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access   to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In   the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already have 3D-printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go into, ask yourself this question:  "In the future, do you think we will have that?" And if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of current jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs produced and filled by people in such a small time-frame.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can   then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponically grown food will need much less water. The first petri-dish-produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018.   Right now, 30% of all agricultural land acreage surfaces are used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startup companies that will bring   insect protein to the market shortly. Insects contain more protein than meat from beef cattle. It will be labeled as an "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell which mood you are in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where the debaters are being displayed on TV, and it shows when they are telling the truth and when not.  That has an even greater potential of destroying our political primary system than the current candidates do by themselves!

 

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years; now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing, and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a very long time, probably way more than 100 years.

Is that OK?

 


agape